Policy Catalysts + Improved Supply-Demand Dynamics Drive Marginal Improvement in The PVC Industry

M'kupita kwa nthawi, makampani a PVC aku China amathandizidwa ndi zikhazikitso zolimba kuti mukhale ndi chiyembekezo. Choyamba, kukhazikitsidwa mosalekeza kwa mfundo za "anti-involution", kuphatikizapo mitengo yosiyanitsira magetsi ndi kuthetsedwa kwa kuchotsera misonkho yochokera kunja, kudzafulumizitsa kuchotsedwa kwa mphamvu zosakwanira. Chachiwiri, kukula kwatsopano kwa PVC padziko lonse kudzakhalabe kochepa m'zaka zikubwerazi, zomwe zidzachititsa kuti pakhale kusintha pang'onopang'ono-kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zimafunidwa. Chachitatu, mpikisano wapadziko lonse wamakampani a PVC waku China ukupitilira kukula, pomwe pali mwayi wokulirapo m'misika yotumiza kunja.

Potengera kuzama kwa mfundo zapakhomo za "anti-}kusinthika", kuyambira pa Januware 24 mpaka 31, 2026, gulu lofufuza la Guo Tai Futures linayendera Shaanxi, Ningxia ndi Inner Mongolia-magawo atatu akuluakulu a PVC{5}}ku China. Cholinga chinali kuona zotsatira zenizeni za mfundo zazikuluzikulu monga kusiyanitsa mitengo ya magetsi ndi kuthetsedwa kwa kuchotsera msonkho wa katundu wogulitsa kunja kwa makampani a PVC, ndi kutsimikizira mmene kuchepetsa mphamvu, mmene makampani amagwirira ntchito, ndi{7}}pamalo{8}}amene akufunafuna zenizeni. Madera omwe anafunsidwawo ndi okwana matani 7.45 miliyoni{VC1 a calcium carbi, omwe amaimira matani a calcium 7.45 miliyoni{VC1} 25.55% ya mphamvu zonse za PVC za ku China ndi 36% ya dziko lonse la calcium carbide{{14}kutengera kuchuluka kwa PVC. Amakhalanso ndi matani 22.89 miliyoni a calcium carbide, omwe amawerengera 60.88% ya kuchuluka kwa calcium carbide ku China. Kuphatikiza apo, maderawa ndi madera oyeserera amitengo yosiyanitsira magetsi, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti kafukufukuyu aziyimira kwambiri makampani.

Kafukufukuyu adayang'ana kwambiri mfundo zazikulu ziwiri: kusiyanitsa mitengo yamagetsi ndi kuthetsedwa kwa kubwezeredwa kwa msonkho wa PVC. Monga njira zazikulu zoyendetsera ndondomeko ya "anti-involution", zonsezi zakhudza kwambiri ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali, maonekedwe a kunja ndi kusakanikirana kwa makampani a PVC.

Pankhani ya kusiyana kwa mitengo ya magetsi, Dipatimenti Yoona za Zamakampani ndi Ukatswiri wa Chidziwitso cha Chigawo cha Shaanxi inapereka chikalata chokambirana mu Disembala 2025, ikukonzekera kukhazikitsa mitengo yamagetsi yosiyanitsira kuyambira pa Julayi 1, kukhudza mafakitale -amphamvu 7 kuphatikiza calcium carbide ndi PVC. Kuchuluka kwa PVC ndi calcium carbide ku Shaanxi kumapanga 7.18% ndi 9% ya chiwerengero cha dziko lonse motsatira, ndipo ndondomekoyi idzakweza mwachindunji mtengo wa calcium carbide kupanga. Mukakhazikitsa, ndalama zopangira PVC ku Shaanxi zikuyembekezeka kukwera ndi 70 yuan pa toni, kutsika poyerekeza ndi zongoyerekeza. Mabizinesi atha kuthana ndi vutolo pogwiritsa ntchito malasha-kulowetsa magetsi m'malo komanso kugula zinthu zakunja{11}}zotsika mtengo za calcium carbide kuchokera ku Inner Mongolia, zomwe zingachititse kuti makampani a PVC asamavutike kwambiri. Mabizinesi omwe adawafunsawo amavomereza kuti kusiyanitsa mitengo yamagetsi si lamulo lachigawo koma ndi njira yosinthira mafakitale, yomwe ikuyembekezeka kukhala chida chofunikira kwambiri{13} kulimbikitsa{14}}zopinga za msika pamitengo yamakampani.

Pa Januware 9, Unduna wa Zachuma ndi Boma la Taxation Administration lidapereka mgwirizanoChilengezo pa Kusintha Ndondomeko Zochotsera Misonkho Yogulitsa Kutumiza kunja kwa Photovoltaic ndi Zinthu Zina, zomwe zikuphatikiza utomoni wa PVC, PVC yosapangidwa ndi pulasitiki ndi PVC yopangidwa ndi pulasitiki pakusintha. Pakadali pano, ambiri ogulitsa PVC adagulitsa kale-oda mu February, ndipo mabizinesi ena akuchepetsanso malonda akumayiko ena kuti asunthire ku malonda akunja, kuthandizira kuchuluka kwa zotuluka. Zokhudzidwa ndi ndandanda yotumizira, kutumiza kwa PVC kukuyembekezeka kufooka kumayambiriro kwa Marichi. Kuphatikizidwa ndi nyengo yamvula kum'mwera chakum'mawa ndi kumwera kwa Asia, zogulitsa kunja zidzalowa munyengo yosinthika pambuyo pa Epulo, ndikutsika komwe kungapitirire mpaka Julayi.Kutengera momwe makampani amawonera, kuthetsedwa kwa kuchotsera misonkho yogulitsa kunja kukuyembekezeka kukweza mitengo ya PVC yapadziko lonse lapansi ndikuyambitsa kukonzanso malonda amderalo pakanthawi kochepa. Komabe, m'kupita kwa nthawi, poganizira za mtengo wapamwamba wa China ndi ubwino wake, ndondomekoyi idzalimbikitsa kuwonjezereka kwa kufalitsa kunja ndi kusiyanasiyana kwazinthu. Pakadali pano, kukhudzidwa kwa ethylene m'nyumba{{9}opanga PVC ndi ochepa, pomwe mabizinesi okwera mtengo ku Henan, Shandong ndi madera ena atha kukumana ndi chikakamizo cha chilolezo chololedwa.

Pankhani yamakampani, mabizinesi a PVC ku Shaanxi, Ningxia ndi Inner Mongolia nthawi zambiri amakhala ndikuyenda bwino kwandalama popanda zotayika zomwe zidalembedwa. Pokhapokha-mpaka-kumapeto kwa Disembala 2025 pomwe mabizinesi ena adataya ndalama pang'ono chifukwa chakutsika kwamitengo ya PVC ndi caustic soda. Panthawi imeneyo, zogulitsa pamitengo yotsika-PVC yochepera 4,000 yuan/tonne ndi soda yamadzimadzi yochepera 2,000 yuan/tonne{10}zinali zosoŵa, ndipo mabizinesi adayankha potsimikiza zamitengo ndi kuchepetsa kusaina madongosolo. Munthawi ya kafukufukuyu, mtengo wa PVC00, SG-5 wokwera pamwamba pa 5, SG-5 ndi re mitengo ya caustic soda idakhalabe pakati pa 2,100-2,300 yuan/tonne, kubweretsa phindu lamakampani kubwereranso pamlingo woyenera.

Ponena za chilolezo cha mphamvu, makampaniwa akuwonetsa kusiyana kwachigawo. Podalira ubwino wa malasha ndi magetsi, dera la kumpoto chakumadzulo lakhala malo opangira ndalama za PVC. Mabizinesi onse omwe adafunsidwa amakhulupirira kuti derali silikhala loyamba kuwona kuchepetsa mphamvu. Calcium carbide-opanga ma PVC ku Henan, Shandong ndi madera ena, chifukwa cholemedwa ndi mtengo wokwera kwambiri, akuyembekezeka kukhala m'gulu loyamba lomwe lingathe kuthetsedwa. Ndi mtundu wa mabizinesi, boma{5}likukumana ndi zovuta zambiri za PVC zomwe ali nazo{6}nthawi zambiri} kutsika kwa mtengo wamtengo wapatali ndi kukwera mtengo kwa zinthu, ndi kuchulukitsidwa kwa katundu pa{7}}zinthu; ena amavutikanso ndi kuthekera kofooka kotumiza kunja. Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono amakhalabe ndi magwiridwe antchito abwino komanso amayang'ana bwino pamsika, mothandizidwa ndi kuphatikiza kwamakampani onse, ubwino wamtengo wapatali-mafakitale opangira magetsi, komanso mitengo yosinthika ndi njira zogulitsira.

Mabizinesi asanu ndi atatu a PVC omwe akhudzidwa mu kafukufukuyu akuphatikiza-mabizinesi aboma, abizinesi ndi apakati-mabizinesi apakati (CSOEs), omwe ali ndi kusiyana kwakukulu pakati pamakampaniwo. Mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono amakhala ndi chiyembekezo chamsika wam'tsogolo chifukwa chowongolera mtengo komanso magwiridwe antchito osinthika. Ngakhale kuti malonda ena a CSOE akusokonekera, amagwira ntchito mokhazikika ndipo ali ndi zabwino zonse-zonse zamagulu azinthu komanso kayendetsedwe kake kandalama, kukhala ndi malingaliro osamala pamsika.

Kuphatikiza zokhudzidwa ndi mfundo, machitidwe amakampani komanso-msika wamsika, msika wa PVC ukuyembekezeka kuwonetsa "zambiri Chikondwerero cha Spring chisanachitike, chotsika pambuyo pa tchuthi" pakanthawi kochepa. M'kupita kwa nthawi, iwona kusintha kwapang'onopang'ono kochirikizidwa ndi madalaivala apawiri oyambitsa ndondomeko ndi kupititsa patsogolo kagayidwe kazinthu-zofuna mphamvu.

Msika wa PVC udawona "msika wawung'ono wamasika" chisanachitike Chikondwerero cha Spring, choyendetsedwa ndi zinthu zinayi zofunika: Choyamba, kukwera kwamitengo ya calcium carbide kumapereka chithandizo chamtengo wapatali. Kutulutsa patsogolo kwa Chikondwerero cha Spring kunali pafupi kugulitsidwa, kuyika mabizinesi pamalo amphamvu pazokambirana zamitengo.Chachitatu, "kutumiza mwachangu" patsogolo pa kuthetsedwa kwa kuchotsera kwa msonkho wakunja kunapitilirabe mitengo.Chachinayi, mitengo yotsika ya soda idapindula mbali ya mtengo wa PVC.

Pambuyo pa Chikondwerero cha Spring, komabe msika udzakumana ndi zovuta zambiri. Kumbali imodzi, zotumiza kunja zidzatsika pambuyo pa kutha kwa zenera la "kutumiza kunja". Kumbali inayi, zoyembekeza za kuchepa kwa katundu wapakhomo ndi kufooketsa zofuna zapakhomo, kuphatikizapo kuthetsedwa kwa kuchotsera msonkho wa kunja, zidzalemera pamitengo.

M'kupita kwa nthawi, kampani ya PVC ya ku China imakhalabe ndi mfundo zodalirika. Choyamba, kupitirizabe kukhazikitsidwa kwa mfundo zotsutsana ndi -zosintha zinthu", kuphatikizapo kusiyana kwa mitengo ya magetsi ndi kuthetsa kuchotsera misonkho yogulitsa kunja, zidzathandiza kuthetsa kulephera kwa ntchito, kukulitsa luso la mafakitale, ndikuwonjezeranso msika wa -} wolemera kwambiri, PVC's capacity idzachotsa China. kufikira matani 895,000, pomwe mphamvu zatsopano zapadziko lonse lapansi zidzakhala matani 705,000 okha, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuyamba kwa kuchepa kwazinthu. Kukula kwapang'onopang'ono kwa PVC padziko lonse lapansi ndi kuvomerezedwa kwachangu kwa anthu osagwira ntchito bwino m'zaka zikubwerazi kupangitsa kuti zinthu ziwonjezeke pang'onopang'ono-zofunikira. Chachitatu, kampani ya PVC ya ku China ili ndi mtengo woonekeratu komanso ubwino wake. Pakati pazovuta zakunja, mpikisano wapadziko lonse wamakampani a PVC waku China ukupitilirabe kulimbikitsa, ndikupereka mwayi waukulu wotumiza kunja.

Ponseponse, zinthu zotsogola zoperekedwa{{0}zofuna mphamvu ndi zoyambitsa mfundo za "anti-}zosintha" zimapereka chithandizo chambiri kumakampani a PVC, kutsimikizira kuti{2}}ayamba kukhala abwino kwanthawi yayitali.