Chifukwa chiyani Mitengo ya PVC Raw Material Ikukulirakulira mu 2026? Kusanthula Kothandiza kwa Osewera Pamakampani

Chifukwa chiyani Mitengo ya PVC Raw Material Ikukulirakulira mu 2026? Kusanthula Kothandiza kwa Osewera Pamakampani

Ngati muli m'gulu la PVC-logwirizana ndi - kaya ndinu wopanga zinthu, woyang'anira zogula zinthu, kapena eni ake abizinesi monga ife ku Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd{3}} mwina mwamuvutikirapo posachedwa. Kuyambira pa Marichi 2026, mitengo ya PVC yakhala ikukwera kwambiri kuposa kale lonse, ndipo sikungosinthika kwachisawawa. Lero, ndikuphwanya zifukwa zenizeni zomwe zimayambitsa kukwera kwamitengo iyi, ndi deta yolimba ndi malingaliro amakampani, kukuthandizani kumvetsetsa zomwe zikuchitika komanso momwe mungayankhire.

Choyamba, tiyeni tidziwe zenizeni: ethylene{{0}PVC yochokera ku PVC yakwera kuposa 26%, ndipo calcium carbide{{2}based PVC pafupifupi 24% m'masabata ochepa chabe. Kwa Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., yomwe imayang'ana kwambiri zida zotchingira ndi nsalu zotsatsira (zonse zimadalira kwambiri PVC), izi zikutanthauza ndalama zopangira zokwera komanso zosankha zolimba zogula. Koma kuti tiyende mkunthowu, choyamba tiyenera kudziwachifukwazikuchitika.

1. The Core Driver: Mtengo Kupanikizika Kuchokera Mbali Ziwiri

Kupanga kwa PVC ku China kumayendetsedwa ndi njira ya calcium carbide (yopitilira 80% ya mphamvu yonse), ndi njira ya ethylene yomwe imapanga zina zonse. Njira ziwirizi zikukumana ndi kukwera mtengo kwakukulu, ndipo tsatanetsatane ndi izi:

Kwa calcium carbide{{0}based PVC: Mtengo wa calcium carbide, chinthu chofunikira kwambiri, ukupitilira kukwera. Pa Marichi 16, mtengo wofananira wa calcium carbide unagunda 2,486 yuan/ton, ndipo madera ena adafikira 2,910 yuan/ton. Pali zifukwa ziwiri zazikuluzikulu: kukwera kwamitengo ya malasha (komwe kumakweza mtengo wamagetsi pakupanga calcium carbide) komanso kuyang'anitsitsa zachilengedwe ndi chitetezo m'madera akuluakulu opangira zinthu monga Inner Mongolia ndi Shaanxi, zomwe zachepetsa mphamvu yopangira komanso kulimbitsa.

Kwa ethylene{{0}based PVC: Vuto limachokera ku msika wapadziko lonse wamafuta amafuta. Pa February 28, dziko la United States ndi Israel linaukira dziko la Iran, ndipo dziko la Iran linachitapo kanthu poletsa njira ya Strait of Hormuz - yomwe imanyamula 20% ya malonda a mafuta padziko lonse lapansi. Mitengo ya Brent inakwera pamwamba pa $ 118 / mbiya, ndipo izi zidakwezera mitengo ya ethylene. Kum'mawa kwa China, mitengo ya ethylene idakwera ndi 45% m'milungu iwiri yokha, kuchokera pa 6,000 yuan/ton mpaka 8,800-10,000 yuan/ton. Pofika pa Marichi 16, tsogolo la PVC likugulitsanso kwambiri pa 5,831 yuan/ton, ndi chiwonjezeko cha 4.97% pa tsiku limodzi, kuwonetsa mantha amsika okhudza kukwera mtengo.

2. Kupereka Kwambiri: "Amplifaya" ya Kukwera Mtengo

Kupanikizika kwamitengo ndiye dalaivala wamkulu, koma kupezeka kolimba kwapangitsa kuti zinthu ziipireipire. Tiyeni tiwone ma data:

Kunyumba, ntchito zamakampani a PVC zidatsika mpaka 78.49% m'mwezi wa Marichi chifukwa chakukonzedwa pafupipafupi ndi mabizinesi akuluakulu. Kuphatikiza apo, palibenso mphamvu zatsopano zomwe zikuwonjezedwa mu 2026, ndipo mphamvu zopanga zakale zikuthetsedwa, chifukwa chake chiwopsezo chakukula kwapachaka ndichochepera 1%. Kutsidya kwa nyanja, zinthu ndizovuta kwambiri: matani opitilira 2 miliyoni a PVC atsekedwa ku Europe, Japan, ndi US chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo kwamagetsi komanso kupsinjika kwa chilengedwe, zomwe zawonjezeranso kufunikira kwa kutumiza kunja kwa China ku PVC.

3. Kubwezeretsa Kwapang'onopang'ono: "Thandizo" Kumbuyo Kwakuyenda

Mosiyana ndi kukwera kwamitengo yam'mbuyomu komwe kumayendetsedwa ndi ndalama zokha, nthawi ino palinso kuchira pang'ono pakufunidwa kopereka chithandizo. Chifukwa cha ndondomeko zokhazikika zakukula ku China, mfundo za "kuperekedwa kotsimikizika kwa nyumba" komanso kupititsa patsogolo ntchito za zomangamanga zapangitsa kuti paipi ndi mbiri za PVC zikhalepo. Pofika kumapeto kwa February, kuchuluka kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka mapaipi a PVC ndi mabizinesi ambiri zidakwera kufika pa 62%, zomwe ndi 11-kuwonjezeka kwaperesenti kuchokera kumapeto kwa kotala yachinayi ya 2025.

Kufuna kunja kukukulanso. Dziko la India posachedwapa laletsa certification ya BIS ndi{1}}zoletsa kutaya ntchito pa PVC yaku China, ndipo chifukwa chakuti kunja kwa nyanja kutsekedwa, PVC yaku China yakwera mtengo-kupikisana. Akuti zogulitsa kunja kwa PVC zaku China zikukula ndi 20% chaka chino, zomwe zimathandizira kutengera mitengo yapakhomo ndikuthandizira mitengo. Kwa makampani ngati athu ku Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., kukula kwakunja kumeneku kumabweretsanso mwayi watsopano pakati pazovuta zamtengo wapatali.

4. Kodi Zimenezi Zikutanthauza Chiyani kwa Ife? (Malangizo Othandiza)

Monga munthu wogwira ntchito kukampaniyi - ndikuyankhula kuchokera ku zomwe Hubei Jinlong adakumana nazo - kuti muyende pakukwera kwamitengoku kumafuna kusanthula modekha, osati kuchita mantha. Ofufuza akuti mayendedwe amitengo yamtsogolo amadalira zinthu ziwiri: mikangano yazandale ku Middle East komanso mayendedwe amitengo yamafuta osakanizidwa. Ngati mikangano ikuchepa ndipo mitengo yamafuta ikugwa, mitengo ya PVC yaiwisi imatha kukonza; koma ngati mkanganowo upitirire kapena kuwongolera chilengedwe kukhwimitsa, mitengo idzakhalabe yokwera.

Kwa mabizinesi monga Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd., nawa malingaliro angapo othandiza: Choyamba, yang'anirani mosamalitsa kusintha kwa msika, makamaka mitengo yamafuta amafuta ndi calcium carbide, kuti mupewe kugula zinthu mwakhungu. Chachiwiri, konzani njira zogulira zinthu - mwachitsanzo, kutsekera{4}makontrakitala anthawi yayitali kuti akhazikitse mitengo, monga momwe mabizinesi ena otsogola achitira kuti atseke ndalama zogulira zinthu mu theka loyamba la 2026. Chachitatu, sinthani mapulani opangira zinthu moyenera, ganizirani kwambiri-mtengo{7}}wokwera kwambiri{7}}ndipo kuchepetsa kukhudzika kwa zinthu.

Mwachidule, kukwera kwa mitengo ya PVC kumeneku sikwanthawi kochepa-ndi mawu akuti "speculative bubble" - ndikuphatikizana kwa mikangano yazandale, kutsika kwamitengo, kukhwimitsa zinthu, komanso kubweza kufunikira kocheperako. Kwa ife tonse m'makampani, kumvetsetsa madalaivala awa ndi sitepe yoyamba kuti tipulumuke ngakhalenso kuchita bwino pamsika wovutawu. Ife ku Hubei Jinlong Industry Co., Ltd. tikukonzanso njira zathu kuti zigwirizane ndi kusintha kwa msika, ndipo tipitiriza kuyang'ana kwambiri popereka-zinthu zabwino kwambiri ndikuwongolera kuopsa kwa mtengo wake.